Wednesday, February 23, 2011

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S & P 500 - Achieved, breaking bearish potential

Target prospective extension Fibonacci 161.8% to 1.350 located points practically been reached this week, the curve points of the S & P 500 hit area of 1.344 percentage points higher this week, with only 6 points difference between target and reality, one could say without too much risk of being compromised ... that the target was hit!

A great way to determine a potential slowdown in an index is to observe the distance between peaks or troughs located on an area support significant. When the distance between two peaks or troughs is good range, it indicates the vitality of the momentum in place it is bullish or bearish. While a merger between two hollows on the rise as now may be the breath of the clan bullish and difficulties in maintaining a positive momentum, which just create a potential tipping point in favor of the opposing clan, I named the bear clan.

support the type figure rising wedge was smashed today on validation of this break, the next target zone of the moving average of 45 days was used to support the end of November last. Two very important supports to observe carefully, the first is located at 1.276 points, the second is represented by the 23.6% retracement at 1.265 points.

I often mentioned that it could not be any real correction as long as the curve points or a price index or a title was located at the top of the 23.6% retracement in top that there is fluctuation retracement or oscillation quite normal, for cons in the bottom of this retracement is where the clan is really bearish on traffic control ... at least until the next support.
On breaking the 23.6% Fibo towards the 38.2% located on the previous high of last April to 1,216 points, which could provide an excellent medium, but one step at a time ...
Usually the figures are rising wedge type lasting creation of 6 to 8 weeks in medium. In If the current S & P 500, rising wedge has been forged over a period of 7 to 8 months, which is much longer than normal. I mention this because in recent years that observe what type of figure , when the period of creation of the bevel far exceeds the average , it is very difficult to set a target forward with such a figure. So the most effective I believe, to fall back on Fibonacci ratios and carefully observe the holding locations and moving averages.

For the above analysis on the S & P 500, click here

Claude Bordeleau
The observer technical analysis of stock markets
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